PHASE 1 · CONFLICT INTELLIGENCE
PIPELINE ACTIVE
Generated 2026-07-30 21:13:43 WAT
Nigeria Security Intelligence Dashboard · 90-Day Analysis Window
Total Events
403
Last 90 days · all zones
Critical Incidents
179
Battles + bombings
Confirmed Fatalities
496
Human cost — not just a number
States Affected
35
Across all 6 geopolitical zones
🗺️ Zone Risk Map
Avg threat score
N.west 16.7 N.east 16.9 N.Central 17.5 S.West 9.3 S.S. 10.1 S.East 13.7 Avg. threat score by zone
Design note: Colour intensity scales with threat score, not raw event count. High-fatality low-frequency zones are not underweighted — protecting against "psychic numbing" (Slovic, 2007).
⚡ Zone Threat Breakdown 6 ZONES
Sorted by risk score
Northeast → STABLE
121 events 75 critical 64 fatalities 16.9%
Top actor: ISWAP
Northwest ↓ DECLINING
141 events 67 critical 317 fatalities 16.6%
Top actor: Military Forces of Nigeria
NorthCentral ↑ RISING
81 events 23 critical 73 fatalities 16.5%
Top actor: Farmers/Herders
SouthEast → STABLE
16 events 5 critical 8 fatalities 14.3%
Top actor: Unknown Armed Group
SouthSouth ↑ RISING
32 events 7 critical 30 fatalities 11.8%
Top actor: Unknown Armed Group
SouthWest ↑ RISING
12 events 2 critical 4 fatalities 9.9%
Top actor: Protesters
🚨 Highest Threat Events TOP 8
Score = recency × severity × impact
CRITICAL
Bombing or IED — Kogi, NorthCentral
Unknown Armed Group · Today · 0 fatalities
IED detonated on rural road in Kogi. Unknown Armed Group implicated.
70 / 100
CRITICAL
Armed confrontation — Edo, SouthSouth
Nigerian Police Force · 1d ago · 0 fatalities
Gun battle involving Nigerian Police Force near farmland in Edo.
68 / 100
CRITICAL
Bombing or IED — Zamfara, Northwest
Military Forces of Nigeria · 1d ago · 0 fatalities
Bombing in Zamfara attributed to Military Forces of Nigeria.
68 / 100
CRITICAL
Armed confrontation — Sokoto, Northwest
Military Forces of Nigeria · 2d ago · 0 fatalities
Armed clash between Military Forces of Nigeria and security forces in Sokoto.
65 / 100
CRITICAL
Armed confrontation — Zamfara, Northwest
Military Forces of Nigeria · 4d ago · 0 fatalities
Armed clash between Military Forces of Nigeria and security forces in Zamfara.
61 / 100
CRITICAL
Armed confrontation — Niger, Northwest
Unknown Armed Group · 9d ago · 3 fatalities
Gun battle involving Unknown Armed Group near farmland in Niger.
60 / 100
CRITICAL
Armed confrontation — Bauchi, Northeast
ISWAP · 7d ago · 1 fatalities
Armed clash between ISWAP and security forces in Bauchi.
60 / 100
CRITICAL
Armed confrontation — Adamawa, Northeast
Unknown Armed Group · 5d ago · 0 fatalities
Armed clash between Unknown Armed Group and security forces in Adamawa.
59 / 100
Human labels: Analysts see "Armed confrontation" not "Battles" — clinical distance increases error rate under stress (Klein, 1998).
📍 Top 10 Threat States
Avg threat score
Anambra
30.1
Kogi
27.8
Bauchi
23.8
Zamfara
22.3
Cross River
21.3
FCT
20.6
Jigawa
18.4
Kwara
17.6
Katsina
17.5
Abia
17.4
📈 30-Day Event Trend
Daily conflict events — amber=total, red dashed=critical
All events ── Critical
🔖 Incident Type Breakdown
Armed confrontation
32%
Civilian attack
29%
Intelligence signal
15%
Bombing or IED
12%
Civil unrest
12%
⚔️ Most Active Non-State Actors
Excludes security forces
Unknown Armed Group
86
ISWAP
28
CJTF (Civilian Joint Task Force)
26
Yan Daba
22
Yan Bindiga
22
Farmers/Herders
22
🔧 ETL Pipeline Audit Log TRANSPARENT
Every data run is recorded — immutable audit trail
2026-07-30 21:13 full_refresh 403 fetched SUCCESS 0.36s
Why transparency matters: Displaying the pipeline audit log to analysts builds appropriate trust in the data — neither over-reliance nor dismissal. Automation bias (Parasuraman & Manzey, 2010) is reduced when humans can see how the intelligence was produced.